
The most anticipated fight of 2009 is tomorrow: Manny Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto. It’s a compelling matchup between two of the most exciting fighters in the sport. Even though the odds makers are favoring Pacquiao to win the fight — some experts would say unreasonably so — there are several interesting factors that make this bout so interesting. Let’s take a look at some of them.
1) Can Pacquiao Deal with Cotto’s Power? — Manny has never dealt with a fighter as strong as Cotto. A weight drained and old Oscar De La Hoya doesn’t count. Although Cotto is short for a welterweight (147 pounds), he’s thick and strong. Compare that to Manny, who was fighting at 135 in the summer of 2008 and has had most of his success at 130. You have to figure that at some point in the fight, Miguel is going to get leather on Manny. Will he be able to deal with Cotto’s fierce body shots? What about the left hook to the head?
2) Can Cotto Deal with Pacquiao’s Speed? — It’s true that Miguel has taken on some crazy fast fighters in the past, like Zab Judah and Shane Mosley. He was able to neutralize their speed through a strong jab and smart boxing tactics. That said, the mercurial Judah is an idiot with no heart. As fantastic as Mosley is, he’s never used his speed intelligently at 147 and above. While Pacquiao isn’t the smartest fighter in the world, he excels at using his speed to get in, do some damage, and get out. If Cotto can nix Pacquiao’s speed — and that’s a huge “if” — it’s going to take several painful rounds to do it.
3) Will Joe Santiago’s Inexperience Hurt Cotto? — Cotto recently fired his longtime trainer, his uncle Evangelista Cotto. He named his nutritionist, Joe Santiago, head trainer. Pacquiao, on the other hand, has been working with the excellent Freddie Roach for years. Roach has claimed that Santiago’s inexperience is hurting Cotto, since the fighter doesn’t have anyone correcting his bad habits. Some say this is Roach engaging in gamesmanship, but I think it’s a valid point. Perhaps Santiago has been training Cotto poorly, but the bigger issue is whether Santiago can analyze the fight and help Cotto make adjustments. I’m not sure how effective he can be in that capacity.
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