Coffee Talk #115: Will the Apple iPad Change the World?

The Apple iPad is set to launch in a little over a week. The device is supposedly the most important thing Steve Jobs has launched in his illustrious career, as well as better than a notebook for some things and better than a smartphone for other things. Some industry pundits and tech enthusiasts feel that it will be one of the most world-changing consumer-electronics devices ever released. Others feel that it will be another cool and overpriced gadget. What do you think?

Welcome to Coffee Talk! Let’s start off the day by discussing whatever is on your (nerd chic) mind. Every morning I’ll kick off a discussion and I’m counting on you to participate in it. If you’re not feelin’ my topic, feel free to start a chat with your fellow readers and see where it takes you. Whether you’re talking about videogames, what kind of punishment Gilbert Arenas will get today, why the hell Erik Morales is still boxing, or the sheer awesomeness of Scrabble, Coffee Talk is the place to do it.

The Apple iPad is set to launch in a little over a week. The device is supposedly the most important thing Steve Jobs has launched in his illustrious career, as well as better than a notebook for some things and better than a smartphone for other things. Some industry pundits and tech enthusiasts feel that it will be one of the most world-changing consumer-electronics devices ever released. Others feel that it will be another cool and overpriced gadget. What do you think?

As far as bridging the gap between laptops and smartphones, I can totally see the appeal. The iPad’s form factor is perfect for browsing the web on your couch or checking email (without straining your eyes) at a coffeehouse. I do a ton of web browsing on my iPhone and often wish I had something a little bit bigger — but still handheld — to surf the web on. While the iPad would be extremely convenient for people like me, I don’t know that the majority of consumers want the same things I want.

The iPad is also being heralded as the savior of magazines and newspapers. From what I’ve seen so far, the potential is tremendous. When Apple showed the demo of The New York Times at its iPad unveiling, I thought it was nice, but I wasn’t sure that it was something I’d pay for. When I saw Wired’s iPad mock-up, I was blown away! It looked like a ridiculously cool and fun way to absorb information. That said, it also looked expensive to produce and I’m not sure how many magazine publishers are willing to invest in a highly interactive and video-heavy version of a magazine. I also question whether advertisers will pay a premium for iPad magazine ads.

Today I want you to look at the iPad as a whole. Look at the apps. Look at the functionality that bridges laptops and smartphones. Look at potentially cool forms of media that will be available for it in the next year. When you add it up, do you see a device that will change the world similar to how the iPod and iPhone did? Or is it a cool and overpriced product that will only serve a niche audience?

AT&T 3G Microcell Will Make Your 3G Service Not Suck

At CTIA 2010, AT&T announced that its 3G Microcell signal booster will be available nationally starting mid-April 2010. The device was tested in select markets in 2009. 3G Microcell uses your broadband connection to handle calls and data instead of traditional wireless signal. Devices like it are a godsend for people that live in areas with poor coverage or want to be able to use their mobile phone in basements. AT&T customers in New York and San Francisco — two areas where the company’s coverage is poor — can have a stopgap solution with 3G Microcell.

The 3G Microcell costs $149.99, but there are a few rebates available to bring the cost down. A $100 rebate is available to customers that select a Microcell plan, while an additional $50 is available to customers that also get AT&T DSL or U-verse Internet service. A $19.99 plan add-on allows users to make unlimited Microcell calls.

One of the reasons I switched to T-Mobile was because of its similar (but way more flexible) UMA service. Being able to use WiFi to make and receive calls has been incredibly useful to me, especially when travelling internationally. While Microcell is more limited, it should help the millions of AT&T customers that love their iPhone but hate AT&T’s service.

Are any of you interested in this product? Would you use it at home or bring it to the office?

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OnLive Pricing and Launch Date Announced at GamesBeat/GDC

OnLive has announced that its streaming gaming service for Mac and PC will launch on June 17, 2010 for $14.95 a month. Publishing partners include Electronic Arts, Ubisoft, 2K Games, THQ, and Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment. There will be up to 25 launch titles including Mass Effect 2, Borderlands, Metro 2033, Prince Of Persia: The Forgotten Sands, and Assassin’s Creed II.

In addition to the all-you-can-eat games, OnLive customers will be able to create custom clips of their gaming exploits and watch other gamers play games. The OnLive micro-console is still being worked on, but it will come after the Mac and PC versions of the service.

I know that several of you are Netflix and/or GameFly customers. Is there room in your life for another monthly subscription? Anyone leaning towards giving OnLive a shot? Why or why not?!?

Apple iPad Advertisement Hits the Oscars

I didn’t watch the Academy Awards last night, but a bunch of friends sent me texts and Twitter messages when a new iPad commercial aired during the show. I’ve posted it as a conversation piece and would love to hear your thoughts on it. It definitely has the usual Apple slickness, but does it make any of you want the product more? The iPad is launching on April 3, so expect the media blitz to continue!

PadCast: EEDAR’s Jesse Divnich Talks About the Console Wars in 2010 and How to Become a Gaming Analyst

Catching up with EEDAR director of analyst services Jesse Divnich was completely cool. Naturally, I asked him about how the console wars will shake out in 2010, as well as Project Natal vs. PlayStation Arc/Gem and traditional handheld gaming vs. iPhone/iPod/iPad.

Things got really fun when I asked Divnich about his background and how he became a gaming analyst. It’s a tale of a “hick from French-Canada” moving to America by himself, living in a trailer park, studying hard, and working his ass off to become one of the top analysts in the business. Divnich also revealed why he’s better than his competitors and spoke about his relationship with Michael Pachter. (If I had it my way it would be The Divnich Debrief vs. Pach Attack.)

Oh yeah, you’ll also learn why Canadians would make the best terrorists. How can you pass that up?!?

Windows Phone 7: More Evidence That AT&T Will Lose iPhone?

It’s looking more and more like AT&T will lose its vaunted iPhone exclusivity sooner rather than later. At CES 2010, the company threw its support behind Google Android and Palm WebOS. At Mobile World Congress, AT&T was anointed Microsoft’s “premier partner” for Windows Phone 7 Series devices. By the end of 2010, AT&T should have a wide variety of devices that will appeal to tech enthusiasts.

Like I said earlier in the year, AT&T is preparing for life without iPhone (exclusivity). I’m hoping all these signs are pointing to the obvious and that the wonderful iPhone will be free of the filthy shackles of AT&T’s network soon. Ah…the dream.

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Today’s Poll: What’s Your Next Mobile OS?

Microsoft made a big splash today with Windows Phone 7 Series. It adds another combatant to the extremely interesting mobile-phone market. I wanted to see which OS interests you the most. I realized a few seconds ago that I forgot all about RIM’s BlackBerry OS, but after a few minutes of thought, I realized that it was probably the right move. BlackBerry OS 5 is not a modern OS and isn’t really comparable to the others in the poll.

Anyway, take the poll and share your thoughts (please)!

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Apple iPad Costs as Little as $229 to Build According to iSuppli

Market research firm iSuppli published a chart that revealed that the Apple iPad costs between $229.35 to $346.15 to make. The initial price of the device ranges from $499 to $829. Take a peak at this nifty chart.

If iSuppli’s numbers are accurate then Apple will be making a pretty penny off each iPad sold right out of the gate. Considering that none of its parts are bleeding edge, the estimates are totally believable.

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AT&T Keeping the Apple iPhone Until 2011? (Oh Noes!!!)

When I first read this report from GigaOm my initial thought was, “Please God don’t let AT&T hang onto the iPhone until 2011.” That would truly suck, as I would love to use the iPhone as a phone (crazy idea, I know) but have little faith that AT&T will substantially improve its network in 2010. Thankfully Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Chaplin’s theory is a bit…basic:

We believe there is a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity in 2010. We arrive at this probability through a two step process: First, we try to determine whether the Apple / AT&T agreement expires in 2010. The consensus view is that it does; however, we couldn’t find compelling evidence that this is the case. We conclude that there is only a 50% probability that it ends in 2010. Next, we try to determine whether AT&T bids for another year of exclusivity if exclusivity does end in 2010. We conclude that they would and that they can afford to compensate Apple such that Apple would be economically indifferent. Our approach yields a 25% probability for this outcome. Taken together, we see a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another year.

I expect more from a Swiss banker (like Claudio Castagnoli). Is it me or does Chaplin’s theory seems third-grade-ish?

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