A good number of my gaming industry colleagues believe that it’s only a matter of time before the global installed based of the Sony PlayStation 3 overtakes that of the Microsoft Xbox 360. I lean that way myself, but don’t want to make any predictions (I’ll leave that to Pachter). With that in mind, I was surprised by the number crunching and gathering done by Industry Gamers. The race is way closer than I thought it was. Check it out:
The respective global installed bases for the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 are showing 41.7 million units sold for Microsoft and 38.1 million for Sony. That’s a difference of just 3.6 million units on a worldwide basis, and considering that Microsoft got a full 1-year head start with the Xbox 360, it shows how strong Sony has come on of late.
It shows that Sony is doing something very right, or that Microsoft is doing something wrong and failed to really capitalize on its early jump on the next-gen market. Numerous analysts have said that PS3 could pass Xbox 360 in the years ahead, and if this PS3 sales pace keeps up, and if Microsoft doesn’t jump start its business with Kinect this holiday, then we could easily see it happening. Over the last fiscal year, 10.3 million Xbox 360 consoles were sold, but Sony shifted 14.3 million PS3 units.
Q4 2010 will be extremely interesting. Will Microsoft be able to snag new customers with Kinect? Will Sony be able to do the same with Move? Will Sony be able to maintain its momentum? Under optimum conditions, there’s a chance that Sony will be able to close the gap by the end of the year — something I didn’t think was possible until 2011.
Most importantly, I want to know what you think of these numbers. How do you think things will play out in 2010? Leave your predictions in the comments section (please)! You can even give yourself a two-million unit margin of error like Michael Pachter.
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