When I first read this report from GigaOm my initial thought was, “Please God don’t let AT&T hang onto the iPhone until 2011.” That would truly suck, as I would love to use the iPhone as a phone (crazy idea, I know) but have little faith that AT&T will substantially improve its network in 2010. Thankfully Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Chaplin’s theory is a bit…basic:
We believe there is a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity in 2010. We arrive at this probability through a two step process: First, we try to determine whether the Apple / AT&T agreement expires in 2010. The consensus view is that it does; however, we couldn’t find compelling evidence that this is the case. We conclude that there is only a 50% probability that it ends in 2010. Next, we try to determine whether AT&T bids for another year of exclusivity if exclusivity does end in 2010. We conclude that they would and that they can afford to compensate Apple such that Apple would be economically indifferent. Our approach yields a 25% probability for this outcome. Taken together, we see a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another year.
I expect more from a Swiss banker (like Claudio Castagnoli). Is it me or does Chaplin’s theory seems third-grade-ish?
That is the most bullshit math I have ever seen. If Gigaom pays for that, I need a job.
@Smartguy Cool…for a few minutes I thought it was just me. GigaOm was quoting the guy, btw.
@Ray
I love how all of those probabilities aren't explained and are perfectly even. This person doesn't have one clue about business and is writing articles doing speculation lol. Like a bad sportswriter. (Jason Cole)
@Smartguy – am I wrong or do those %'s not add together as perfectly as he says? His entire argument, while semi-sensical, is complete undone by piss-poor math.
*completely
the best phone in the world, the htc hd2 is coming exclusively here in america to tmobile
i should have waited….
nevermind, i forgot that windows mobile sucks
@larcenous
yes. I need a job like that.
I just love that 50% from one set of assumptions adds together with 25% from another set, and then he males a "factual" statement based off of that.
If 50% of people own a dog, and 25% percent say that eating dogs is wrong, then 75% are eating from Yang's Chinee Takee Outee (an actual Jacksonville takeout place).
@shockwave and larcenous
this is the same way oil is priced per barrel by speculators. Actually all commodity trading is highly speculative. Remember, nobody actually knows how to price oil lol.
La la la la la la…I can't hear bad news that way…I'm not listening. Lol, I'm not actually doing that, but I am still anxious to hear confirmation about this is June. I would be dismayed if verizon didn't have a chance this year.
But that logic does seem extremely basic to me. I also see no reasoning on how those numbers were ever reached, which from a research standpoint means those numbers are worthless.
@bsukenyan Speaking of research, I was actually thinking of interviewing EEDAR Jesse at DICE and had you in mind. I think it might be fun to get an analyst's (not Pachter) perspective on the business.
@Ray. That would actually be really cool I think. He went to EMU, which is a school I almost went to, and is in the MAC with Ball State. So there is web a little bit of a regional similarity there.
And on too of that EEDAR is almost like a dream job for me after graduation. Their client list is impressive, and with me wanting to do research for a living, I would love to work that closely with the video game industry.
@bsukenyan Okay, I'll pursue it for you. Is this a personal web site or what?!? Ha!
@Ray. Haha it definitely is. That's what you get when you build a personal and inviting web site and actually interact with the users. No complaints here!
that is ridiculous math, 3rd gradish is generous, he has no basis for comparison, no facts, only assumptions and guesses. I don’t think anybody is going to know anything until summer. I’d like to see a 4G phone announced in June, I’d be on it so fast.
I’d like to see more rumors going the other way Rpad