John Dvorak Predicts That Xbox Kinect Will Fail

PC Magazine columnist John Dvorak — one of the most respected tech pundits in the biz — believes that Microsoft’s Xbox Kinect is “doomed to fail”. In a recent column, Dvorak wrote:

Game play is typically a sedentary activity. You typically play games while already pooped out from the day’s activities. The last thing you want to do is jump around like some ninny. The device is never going to catch on with the general gaming community for this reason alone. Kinect is also limited by what it can actually do. Serious gamers get into fine control with specialty controllers that can execute elaborate and accurate action. This will never happen with full-body control—it would be too hard to make it work, and no coders will ever put in the effort much past, “it kind of works. Ship it!”

I respect Dvorak and have enjoyed his writing for more than a decade, but I’m not sold on his prediction just yet. Gaming is outside his realm of expertise. Hell, even within his realm of expertise he’s had his fair share of bad predictions.

Still, it’s an interesting talking point. After seeing video of Kinect and its games, are any of you sold on it? Do you believe it’s doomed to fail? Or are you going to wait before you pass judgement (my personal suggestion)?

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Author: RPadTV

https://rpad.tv

19 thoughts on “John Dvorak Predicts That Xbox Kinect Will Fail”

  1. I have to wait to pass judgment. That's just how I roll.

    However, the line about "jump around like some ninny" made me laugh.

    Obviously, John Dvorak never listened to House Of Pain.

  2. I agree with Mr. Dvorak to a point. I can see where Kinect can be an enhancement to games that already utilize a controller for voice commands or maybe a few quick-time event-based gestures (instead of pushing a button), and also, a slew of new mini-games, but aside from that, I just can't see a game like Call of Duty or Forza with just these controls alone. The main reason motion controls fail (for me, anyway) is because of a lack of a tactile feedback from the game. For example, if I hit a baseball with a motion controller, I don't feel anything to let me know that I connected with the baseball (aside from maybe a slight rumble), but when I hit a baseball with a bat in real life, I get resistance from the ball as I am swinging and connecting with the bat. The same thing goes for racing and swordplay games. The same thing goes for shooters. Ideally, shooters would feature different kinds of guns with different tactile recoils that relate to it's respective armament. If I fire a handgun, I want my motion controller to recoil slightly and have a fast rate of fire as opposed to having a shotgun that would have a huge recoil and a slower rate of fire.

    The Novint Falcon was on the right track with motion controls. Unfortunately, the console manufacturers decided to try 3D before REAL force feedback motion controls. I don't know, sometimes I just feel that Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo are all lost when it comes to really great motion controls; and I'll be damned if I'm going to buy any more.

    -M

  3. im definitely going to buy both kinect and move…i think move will be better, but kinect will bring me one step closer to the back to the future part 2 living room that i always wanted

    still need that pizza dehydrator

  4. @n8r

    you make the mistake of believing that i actually think before i speak or write. Yes, you are correct

  5. Ill take the wait and see approach. I cant effectively bash something i havent tested myself but its not looking good with all the bad press already.

  6. With you guys talking about Back to the Future 2, I'm surprised Tokz hasn't mentioned the movie's prediction of the Cubs sweeping Miami in the 2015 World Series. Far be it from me to accuse the Cubs of being lost and damned this year, but, hey, I guess anything can happen after the All-Star break, right?

    -M

  7. One things for sure, is that it seems like the Pirates haven't been good since Back To The Future3.

  8. @ N8;

    I call that the "Barry Bonds Curse" (patent pending), since Barry Bonds started taking "performance enhancing drugs" at around the same time Back to the Future 3 came out and he was still with the Pirates. Because the Pirates traded Bonds (and because Back to the Future 3 was such a crappy movie), a curse was put upon the Pittsburg Pirates until they became lost and damned ever to wade through the waters of mediocrity until they find their "The One" who can restore the balance of power back to Pittsburgh … or Barry Bonds dies.

    Take your pick.

    -M

  9. @iceman

    your theory is flawed since barry bonds left via free agency not via trade.

  10. @ tokz

    We still could have kept him, they were just cheap. The strike screwed everything up though.

    Honestly, I blame the beginning of our true downfall on the letting go of Jim Leiland our manager at the time. He went on to coach (damn you Iceman) the Florida Marlins and won the pennant for them. He was last seen in Detroit doing great things for the Tigers.

  11. I have to agree with Dvorak. The software isn't strong, the price is too high, and interacting with the game without a tangible controller is going to hurt it. I think if people standing up and playing games with their bodies was going to be huge then we'd have DDR 50 by now.

    Unless the price drops, and the software elevates itself past shovelware…which isn't likely since Bungie is not going to make a control scheme for Kinect as far as Halo is concerned or anyone else for that matter. Well, Lionhead might, but it will more than likely just for you to do the damn expressions.

    I can't see myself doing this for fun. If i want to get up and sweat to fish then I go fishing. I go to the gym to work out. When I want to play games, I kick back and enjoy myself. I guess motion tv is the next fad lol.

  12. well I can't predict anything just yet but I have a comment on his quote " The device is never going to catch on with the general gaming community"

    The Wii has never caught on with the "general gaming community" (I assume he means core gamers) But it sure is popular as hell. I think the point of these motion devices is not to attract gamers like us, it's to attract people who have never played games before this generation.

  13. Honestly after seeing Kinect it is cool for controlling your menus and such but Im not sold on the games at all, except for that dance game. I could see that being the new thing to get your drunk friends to do as an alternative to karaoke.

  14. I guess for me price isn't the issue here. I'd buy it at 150 but I want to see some games that sell me on the device. If I see a game that makes me say 'I need the Kinect' then I'll get it, but I haven't seen it yet.

    Same thing happened with the Wii. I didn't get it until I just had to have Mario Galaxy and New Mario Wii

  15. @Big Blak

    that's a good one, I never thought of that. It would be a great drunk activity!

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