Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has gazed into his magic eight ball and come to the conclusion that Microsoft will sell up to four-million units of Kinect for Xbox 360. According to Gamasutra:
Wedbush analysts Michael Pachter and Edward Woo expect most existing Xbox 360 owners to wait until Kinect’s price drops before picking one up, but estimate that early adopters could still drive sales of two to four million units by March 2011.
Pachter says all sorts of crazy things between his accurate predictions. What do you think of his prediction for Kinect? Is it on the money? Or should this be filed under bat-sh*t crazy?!? I’m leaning towards the latter.
yeah that number seems kind of high!?!?! If the kinect doesn't come out until october, Pachter is predicting that it will sell at least 667,000 units each month. This is a lot for a 149.99 peripheral. i'd say maybe 2 million by March 2011 but not 4 mil.
I expect KINect to have the same fate as the KIN. Didn't they scrap that phone because they only sold like 300 in 3 months. I doubt they will sell many until there is something enticing about like like GAMES or a more reasonable PRICE.
I think the better question would be:
"Is Kinect Microsoft's new HD-DVD drive?"
Answer: Maybe. But four million units for an installed base of tens of millions doesn't seem so far-fetched… especially when you include the Christmas season.
-M
I agree with Iceman, when you consider that the install base is tens of millions then 4 million doesn't seem to bad. @Tokz He also did say 2 to 4 million, so how you just said that 2 million seems possible, Pachter got that covered by claiming a broad range or units sold.
I also think another way to think about it all is that people will associate the Sony Move with the Nintendo Wii as was discussed on the other article about this issue. However, I think that Kinect can get sales because people will see Move as a Sony ripoff of the Wii, and Kinect as something new, different, and innovative. It's just another perspective on the topic of people associating Move with the Wii, it has it's pros and cons as any issue does.
@bsu
yeah but 2 million would've been my max.
This is so damn stupid. He gives himself a 2 million unit margin of error. What a damn joke. This isn't even worth the digital print it is in. Come back when you can be a bit more precise.
@install base
you are overlooking how many of that install base already owns a wii or a ps3 or all 3 really. The kinect will compete with Wii sales (which it will not even touch), Move buyers, and hardcore gamers who will not want to play kinectimals. With Nintendo having a strong lineup this year it will be hard for someone who doesn't own a Wii but just owns a 360 to pass the Wii up. Loss of a Kinect sale.
@smartguy I think it was worth it just to get your reaction. Unsurprisingly, your analysis of Pachter's analysis is excellent. You should be a videogame analyst!
@Ray
Maybe I should. To be honest I wouldn't mind becoming a reviewer or consultant for mobile devices. I think that sector is about to boom into specialized departments for businesses. I seem to be up on my stuff and love learning about it. Maybe…lol.
@smartguy Analysts make much more money than reviewers. I once saw an analyst-that-shall-not-be-named (Voldemort) throw around a bonus that was more than what some reviewers make in four months.
@Ray
I can believe it. I'd love to do it. My own predictions and guesses are pretty spot on sometimes. Right now me and a friend are writing software for Iphone so I can get a better understanding of that side of it.
@Smartguy
Isn't that kind of what Pachter does a lot though? Give a big margin of error?
@Tokz
I actually kind of think that 2 million would be a little low or average, but not the max.
@bsukenyan Has Pachter been that broad before? I don't recall. It reminds me of a Funky Winkerbean comic strip where he had a test with the following choices:
A) All of the world's tin comes from Bolivia
B) None of the world's tin comes from Bolivia
C) All of the above
I'll take C for the win Wink!
@Ray
Maybe not quite 2 million broad in the past. But I thought that he has made some predictions with some sort of broad numbers before. Either way, that is a great test question. I am gonna give that question to one of my friends who will someday be a teacher and have him ask his students a similar question. The correct answer of course D, but that's not a provided answer.
2mm is too broad. I'd lose my job if I came up with variable costs or revenue projections like that.